The UK is walking a fiscal tightrope. This is how tight it is, right now.
A live, transparent accountability dashboard tracking the real constraints on the UK government's growth agenda — markets, fiscal rules, the labour force, and delivery. One score. Four pillars. Every number sourced and open.
Four pillars, one score
Geometric mean · weights on each tileWhat moved today
Updated every five minutes during UK market hours. Hover any tile for the full source and timestamp.
Market pressure
The daily market read on UK constraint: long gilts, sterling, the rate path, mid-cap equities, and the energy input.
Gilt curve anchors
10y and 30y benchmark yields — the long end is the squeeze.
Market pressure trajectory
30-day pillar score. Higher = more constraint from markets.
Why this matters
Long gilt yields are the price the government pays to borrow for thirty years. When they rise, debt service bills rise with them, the Chancellor's fiscal headroom shrinks, and sterling often weakens — compounding inflation via imports. The 30-year yield is the single most-quoted indicator of "markets are tightening the vice", and it is the one that moves first when policy credibility is in question.
Fiscal constraint
How much room the Chancellor actually has against her own stability rule, and how that has moved between forecast rounds.
Current-budget headroom, 2024 → 2029/30
£ billion, surplus against the stability rule target year. Each dot is a separate OBR forecast round.
The DMO gilt stack
Planned 2026/27 issuance · £252.1bn total
Long issuance cut back; index-linked stock still a sensitivity to inflation shocks.
Labour & living-standards strain
Health-related inactivity, labour-market tightness, real wages and — the line households feel — mortgage rates.
Inactivity rate vs. health-related count
Annual averages, 16-64. Left axis: rate (%). Right axis: health-related inactive (millions).
Mortgage translator
What the 2-year fixed-rate move means on a £250,000, 25-year repayment mortgage.
Extra vs. the rate at the last Budget (5.18% → 5.84%). Payment: £1,586 vs. £1,488.
This is the line you will see quoted in the press. The rate series is Moneyfacts' reported average 2-year fix at 75% LTV.
Vacancies per unemployed person
Rolling quarterly ratio — falling = more slack appearing in the labour market.
Real regular pay growth (YoY)
CPIH-adjusted. Positive values = real wages growing.
Is the growth agenda actually shipping?
The government's own stated commitments, tracked against public milestones. Green for on track, amber for slipping, red for missed, blue for shipped. Every status is sourced.
The events that moved the rope
OBR forecast rounds, BoE decisions, Budget set-pieces, and the geopolitical shocks that landed in between. Pinned to primary sources.
Sterling recovers to pre-war levels
GBP/USD back near 1.2400 as the Iran ceasefire holds and Strait of Hormuz shipping normalises. Oil and UK gas sell off sharply. BoE officials nonetheless stress inflation control remains the priority.
Reuters, Bank of EnglandReeves rules out tax rises or borrowing for extra defence spending
Chancellor tells reporters additional defence outlays up to the 3.5% commitment will not be funded by more borrowing or higher taxes, pointing the pressure back at welfare and departmental restraint.
Reuters, HM TreasuryOBR Spring Forecast: headroom 23.6bn, GDP cut to 1.1%
Current-budget headroom ticks up from 22.0bn at the November Budget. 2026 growth downgraded from 1.4%. IMF subsequently cuts to 0.8% citing the Middle East shock.
OBR, IMF ↗Iran conflict begins, energy shock lands
UK natural gas front-month jumps 38% inside a week. 30y gilts break 5.5% for the first time since 1998. Tightrope Score moves from 51 to 68 over four trading sessions.
ICE, Bank of EnglandPlanning & Infrastructure Bill receives Royal Assent
Landmark reform of the planning system passes both houses with cross-bench support; commencement orders expected by late spring.
Parliament ↗BoE cuts Bank Rate to 3.75%
7-2 vote. MPC minutes emphasise inflation persistence; markets trim the 2026 cut path.
Bank of England MPCAutumn Budget: 22.0bn headroom restored
Combination of receipts upgrade and tighter departmental envelope rebuilds the cushion after the March 2025 crunch (9.9bn).
HM Treasury, OBRBoE holds Bank Rate at 4.00%, starts reducing gilt sales
QT pace pared back; MPC cites technical market conditions rather than policy loosening.
Bank of England MPCIndustrial Strategy white paper published
Sets out eight priority sectors and the British Industrial Competitiveness Scheme framework.
DBTOBR Spring Forecast: headroom collapses to 9.9bn
The crunch. Gilts reprice and the Chancellor promises restoration in the next fiscal event.
OBRFirst Reeves Budget: 22.0bn headroom set
Opening fiscal envelope. Employer NICs rise, capital budgets reprioritised toward infrastructure.
HM Treasury
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